Australian coking coal exports hit a 5-month high in May'24

• Exports rise 6% m-o-m ahead of Australian financial year-end
  
  
• Higher exports to India, South Korea balance declining shipments to China
  
  

Australian coking coal exports rose by 6% m-o-m to 13.05 million tonnes (mnt) in May 2024 as against 12.27 mnt in April. Export shipments increased to a five-month high as similar levels were seen in December last, as per data maintained with BigMint. However, exports fell by 5% y-o-y to 13.05 mnt in May as against 13.69 mnt in May 2023.

Factors driving exports -

• Despite uncertainties in the market, demand for coking coal remains relatively stable. The leftover June-loading cargoes are expected to absorb demand from end-users. The monthly average price of Australian PHCC remained largely stable at $239/t FOB in May, which has increased stocking by end users. India and other countries have increased their pre-monsoon restocking of coking coal.
  
  
• Additionally, Australian miners concentrated on increasing production in the final month of their financial year, resulting in increased shipments.
  
  
• Supply of coking coal from Adani Gangavaram port started towards mid-May after a lull of about a month. The easing of the strike in May opened the gates for imports of material to India's Gangavaram port and enable easy movement of the material.
  
  

Country-wise exports

Exports to India stood at 3.31 mnt in May, up 8% m-o-m. Shipments to India picked up on increased enquiries due to turmoil in the domestic met coke market. The suggested DGTR recommendation on met coke imports has led to a sudden sharp hike in domestic coke prices which, in turn, led to increased enquiries for coking coal.

Average Australian PHCC prices fell by 13% m-o-m to $260/t CFR India in April compared to $300/t in March. Shipments to Japan rose by 5% m-o-m to 2.60 mnt in May as against 2.47 mnt in April.

Exports to South Korea more than doubled to 1.94 mnt in May, although exports to China dropped 36%. However, shipments to Vietnam (up 4%) were recorded at 0.53 mnt.

Port-wise coking coal exports

Exports from DBCT decreased by 9% m-o-m to 3.93 mnt in May 2024 as against 4.30 mnt in April 2024. Shipments from Gladstone stood at 4.12 mnt in May 2024 as against 2.82 mnt in April 2024. Supplies from Haypoint and Port Kemble rose by 4% and 38%, respectively, in the month under review.

Outlook

Exports from Australia might increase in the coming weeks as there is an indication of tighter supply for July-loading cargoes. Australia is approaching the end of its financial year in June and scheduled maintenance may pile up supply pressure. The expectation of reduced availability may boost bidding interest.